Public Rate Impacts
Rate Analysis Model for BP-26
Aurora Input Assumptions and Model Settings
- As described in the Market Price Study and Documentation, BP-26-E-BPA-04, BPA uses Aurora to produce the BP-26 Initial Proposal market price forecast. Aurora has the capability to create an archive of all input assumptions and model settings that are used to produce a forecast. BPA will share the Aurora archive of input assumptions and model settings used to produce the market price forecast with any Party to the rate case that requests it, provided that the Party has an active Aurora license. To request a copy of the archive, please contact Eric Graessley (ewgraessley@bpa.gov).
- The Natural Gas Hub Price Forecast ($/MMBtu, nominal)
Aurora is a registered trademark of Energy Exemplar Proprietary Limited (ACN 120 461 716), the software developer.
RevSim
The RevSim collection contains the 4h10c Calculator, the Transmission Expense Model, the NSR Model, the NSR Results files, and the Risk Measures Report. With the exception of the Transmission Expense Model and NSR Model, which cover all three fiscal years, these items are in two files, one for FY2026-27 and one for FY2028. The NSR Results files and Risk Measures reports are output summary files, not models in themselves.
The 4h10c Calculator is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook that forecasts BPA’s 4h10c credit for fish mitigation activities. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast 4h10c credit.
The Transmission Expense Model is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook model that utilizes distributions of data to forecast BPA’s transmission expenses under various conditions. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast of transmission expenses.
The BP-26 NSR Model is a self-contained version of the RevSim model, which can be modified and run by users. This model requires the open-source programming language R to run, and was developed using the R Studio development environment.
RSS Model
Tier 2 Pricing Model
TOCAs
TRM Billing Determinants Model
Power Revenue Requirement Model
Customer Impact Model
Rates Analysis Model for BP-26
Transmission Revenue Requirement Model
The ToolKit
This model is used to assess the effect of risks and risk mitigation tools on Power and Transmission Reserves for Risk and Treasury Payment Probability. The ToolKit model is built in Microsoft Excel®.
P-NORM and T-NORM are Microsoft Excel® workbooks with the @RISK® add-in from Palisade Corporation (www.palisade.com). The NORM models can be run or interpreted only on computers with licensed copies of @RISK installed. To run a NORM model, open the file in excel and open @Risk. An @Risk tab should appear in the Excel® menu bar. Click the @Risk tab, set ‘Iterations’ to 2700, ‘Simulations’ to 1 and click ‘Start Simulation’. Results of a simulation used as input for the Toolkit model can be viewed in the ‘Output’ tab.
